Copper Rallies on Hopes of US-Iran Deal as Emerging Markets Face Divergent Growth

Global commodity markets experienced a significant turnaround on Friday as copper rebounded from a three-week low. The rally followed statements from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating that the United States is on the verge of securing a deal with Iran, easing fears of an escalation that had threatened to disrupt the global economy and energy infrastructure.

President Trump's remarks came after he decided to pull back threatened military strikes against the Islamic Republic. This sudden reversal followed earlier vows to hit Iran "VERY HARD" and threaten to seize its oil infrastructure, a geopolitical standoff that had kept commodity traders on edge. The prospect of a diplomatic resolution immediately buoyed industrial metals, with copper recovering from its lowest close since mid-May.

Meanwhile, in emerging markets, a stark divergence is unfolding in India. Despite recent struggles in the domestic stock market, corporate profits in India have surged to a record high relative to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) for fiscal year 2026. According to a report by ICICI Securities, Indian corporates remain highly optimistic about consumer demand and are actively planning to increase capital expenditure, signaling underlying economic resilience despite equity market volatility.

In contrast, economic pressures are fueling unrest elsewhere in Asia. In Jakarta, Indonesian authorities deployed thousands of police and military personnel ahead of massive student-led protests. Demonstrators are venting anger over the rising cost of living under President Prabowo Subianto, demanding that the administration curb big-ticket government spending and implement immediate reforms to revive the local economy.