Global Markets: Dollar Slumps and Gold Rises on Hormuz Progress; Asian Policy Shifts in Focus

Global financial markets experienced significant shifts on Monday as reports of a potential agreement between the United States and Iran to reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz triggered a realignment of risk assets. The news spurred global risk appetite, causing the US dollar to slump while gold prices surged as prospects of the deal tempered broader inflation concerns.

The geopolitical breakthrough in the Middle East has immediate implications for energy flows and inflation expectations. The Strait of Hormuz is a vital maritime transit route for global oil shipments. Signs that Washington and Tehran are closing in on a deal to restore access have eased supply disruption fears, providing a boost to global risk sentiment. Consequently, the safe-haven US dollar weakened against major peers, while gold gained ground as the easing of geopolitical tensions and potential stabilization of energy costs tempered long-term inflation projections.

Meanwhile, in Asian markets, regional developments are drawing close attention from investors. In Japan, a sharp surge in government bond yields is deepening a performance divide among regional lenders. According to market analysts, rising yields are expected to widen the stock performance gap between regional banks. Lenders with weaker investment portfolios and higher exposure to legacy fixed-rate bonds face mounting paper losses, whereas those with stronger, more flexible holdings stand to benefit from higher interest margins.

Concurrently, Indonesia is preparing to provide global commodity markets with critical updates regarding its export policies. The Indonesian government is currently finalizing the legal and structural rollout of a new centralized export agency designed to manage the outflow of key commodities, including palm oil, coal, and ferroalloys. Trade Vice Minister Dyah Roro Esti Widya Putri confirmed at the APEC meeting in China that the administration is moving toward execution within the coming weeks. While recent policy shifts have previously unnerved international investors, Jakarta aims to provide clarity and stability to major trading partners with this upcoming framework.